วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 16 ธันวาคม พ.ศ. 2553

Genuine buyers will hire you.

Ever wondered how the government decided to split up the country? I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you said no and to be honest unless it’s a job you probably have better things to think about, but an interesting survey recently released has some interesting results regarding how the UK’s love for technology is dividing up the country.

Originally created for the BBC’s ‘Britain from Above’ series data was collected from over 12 million anonymised landline British telephone calls which was then used to model a map of Great Britain split into 13 regions which theoretically make the least cuts between ‘connections’./> id="more-19493">/> Based on frequency and time the ‘connections’ were created every time a phone call was made, and then using some clever computer trickery researchers headed by Carlo Ratti of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) divided Great Britain up by creating regions that split through the least number of connections.

The results of these are pretty interesting (and also look kind of exciting on the image) as they give a far more accurate view of how the country is socially divided rather than how it is divided through boundaries that have merely survived the test of time.

Some of the regions are very unexciting: London for example remains a singular region, as does East Anglia, the South West and South East, but it is Scotland and Wales that are the most interesting; despite being unified with England in terms of sovereignty at least there is still a clear social divide between Scotland and North England and the line dividing the two ‘social’ regions mimics the international one incredibly accurately!

However whilst Wales seems to have the south nicely divided up Central Wales is, as far as landline phone calls are concerned, becoming very much a part of the West Midlands whilst North Wales is essentially part of the North West of England.

Ok it is fair to say that this isn’t going to change anything, and is in reality little more than a nice graph, but does it say something about how we communicate in modern times? Although as Mr Ratti said “…you’d need to analyse further data sets, such as emails, instant messages to build a fuller picture of how people communicate” (which would be even more interesting) it is fair to say that even in an age where we can communicate with people anywhere in the country at the touch of a button there is still very much a sense that people communicate mostly within the area that they live.

Admittedly of all the forms of communication landline calls are mostly likely to reflect any residual regionalisation, but nevertheless the idea of regional divides are still very much there – research like this just shows how those regions have evolved to fit people’s everyday needs.

So although this isn’t anything new it can then prompt your technological theory musings of the day: how has the technology boom over the last few decades changed the boundaries of our country?

If this study is anything to go by then it has in the sense that the boundaries have changed, but they are still very much there and perhaps surveys like this should be taken into account by people like the Government and BBC when they consider their regionalisation policies, especially when it comes to issues such as rural broadband!

Via – BBC


By Melissa J. Anderson (New York City)


Has the time come for bolder policies for diversity at the top of corporations?


That’s what was discussed last Friday at a conference hosted by the Athena Center for Leadership Studies at Barnard College and the Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center for Leadership and Ethics at Columbia Business School.


The first half of the conference focused on academic research on the subject, performed by social scientists and researchers from top business schools. The second half focused on the practitioner perspective (check back next week for another article discussing the practical reality of corporate gender targets).


By and large, the researchers agreed that a more targeted approach to gender balance in corporate leadership would be beneficial. Kathryn Kolbert, Director of the Athena Center for Leadership Studies and Professor of Leadership Studies at Barnard, said, “When you change the people at the table, you change the conversation.”


The Indian Analogy – Participation, Effectiveness, and Role Models


Bruce Kogut, Professor of Leadership and Ethics and Director of the Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Center at Columbia University, opened the conference, explaining that research into the value of gender targets or quotas in a business context is difficult to research, simply because the sample size of women leading the largest companies is so small. For this reason, he continued, we must often look to studies of female leadership in other cultures and contexts, and seek out analogies.


The conference’s keynote address, by Esther Duflo, Abdul Latif Jameel Professor of Poverty Alleviation and Development Economics at MIT, studied the effects of gender quotas in the Indian political system. According to Duflo, the country has legislated that 1/3 of all village council seats must be comprised of women. Additionally, 1/3 of village council chiefs must be women.


The research was clear – the quota system paid off, in terms of participation, effectiveness, and creating role models.


Those councils with female leaders tended to be more accessible – with meetings held at times women could attend them and in places where women simply could go. Analogously, Duflo said, in the corporate world, companies with a female chairman of the board are unlikely to hold board meetings at 10pm, or at other times when family responsibilities usually take precedence.


Interestingly, she said, the research team did not observe a spike in female attendance in these meetings. But it did observe a spike in female participation. “They were much more likely to speak,” she said. In fact, everyone seemed much more likely to speak, which had implications for new leadership and democracy.


Additionally, those councils with women leaders had less corruption, and a greater focus on building water wells and new schools. In general, they saw more getting done. “If you put less in your pocket, there’s more to go around,” remarked Duflo.


And the effect was sustained. If villages reverted to a male leader in the next couple of years, corruption remained low.


Finally, the research indicated that female village chiefs not only changed stereotypes, but created role models for teenage girls. “After two years, people were more likely to associate women in politics in places where there was a woman political leader.”


Additionally, after two cycles of female leaders, girls were more likely to say they want to have a career and that they want to be a village chief.


Duflo summed it up, “Quotas do matter. They effect female participation, they increase the public good, and they reflect a greater willingness to elect women in the future and increase teenager aspirations.”


More Quota Studies


The next panel featured some of the most recent research on the value of gender quotas or targets, as well as research into how they can be implemented successfully.


Amy Dittmar, Associate Professor of Finance, Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, discussed her study, “The Impact of Firm Valuation of Mandated Female Board Representation,” based on the Norwegian experience of boardroom quotas. In 2003, the Norwegian government legislated that women must hold 40% of all board seats of publicly traded companies. “For firms that already had women on their board, the stock reaction was positive. But for most firms it was negative,” she said.


Dittmar’s research showed, “It was not the gender that mattered. What explains the drop in value is that [the individuals selected to take the board positions] had less experience.” This had important implications in the pipeline development space.


She also reported that the percentage of public firms going private has increased since the legislation, and that the percentage of Norwegian firms that had begun listing themselves instead in the UK has also increased. Both of these anecdotes reveal that firms are looking for ways around the government’s intervention.


Next, David Ross, Assistant Professor at Columbia Business School, discussed the value of diversity in business strategy. He said, “When you have people from an outgroup, it tends to improve decision making.” Since firms are all operating in a difference context, he said, his research team produced a longitudinal study of firms in the S&P 1500, on the effects of having greater numbers of senior executive women at the same firm over time. The results?


“The exact same company tends to do better when they have one senior executive woman than when they don’t,” he reported.


In another study based on Danish business leaders, Ross found that, “When a CEO has a daughter, female wages rise relative to the wages of men.” This indicates that the “would you want your daughter to work here” question has proved salient in practice.


Following Ross, Mona Lita Krook, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Women and Gender Studies at Washington University in St. Louis, presented “Quotas for Women on Corporate Boards: Lessons from Politics.” Political gender quotas have been in place for significantly longer than corporate ones, so there is more data available for research, she explained.


Krook said that the lack of women in leadership positions can be examined from an economic perspective. On the supply side, the question is whether there are enough female leaders. “This is not the case. There are plenty of qualified women.” So the issue must be on the demand side, she explained. “Women are qualified but discriminated against and this is when the quota system comes into play.”


A number of countries have enacted political gender quotas, but, she said, resistance to political quotas is incredibly strong. Individuals and governments have worked hard to undermine them.


Non-quota strategies (or supply-side strategies like pipeline development), she said, have a much more modest effect on political systems than a targeted approach. Quota systems are a means of fast tracking female leadership, and have a greater effect on role models, democracy, and participation.


Finally, Susan Sturm, George M. Jaffin Professor of Law and Social Responsibility, Columbia Law School, gave a talk on “Reframing the Equality Agenda.” Sturm’s talk focused on the practical implications of how to incorporate gender diversity within an organization.


“What’s going to connect the move at the top to more systematically rooted changes?” she asked. According to Sturm, culture change has to be involved in generating more balanced corporate leadership and institutional change.






Reference research: finance research and home research and shopping research and my social page




law promote

วันพุธที่ 15 ธันวาคม พ.ศ. 2553

” Where is an ARB located?








Equities research analysts at FBN Securities upgraded shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) from a “sell” rating to an “outperform” rating in a research note to clients and investors on Tuesday.


Separately, analysts at BNP Paribas (EPA: BNP) downgraded shares of Research In Motion from an “outperform” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research note to investors on Monday.


Research In Motion Limited (RIM) is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. Through the development of integrated hardware, software and services that support multiple wireless network standards, RIM provides platforms and solutions for seamless access to time-sensitive information, including e-mail, phone, short message service (SMS), Internet and intranet-based applications. RIM’s portfolio of products, services and embedded technologies are used by organizations worldwide and include the BlackBerry wireless solution, the RIM Wireless Handheld product line, software development tools and other software and hardware. Its subsidiaries include Research In Motion Corporation, Research In Motion UK Limited and RIM Finance, LLC. On June 2, 2010, Harman International sold its software operating systems unit, QNX Software Systems, to the Company.


Shares of Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) traded down 2.38% during mid-day trading on Wednesday, hitting $59.01. Research In Motion has a 52 week low of $42.53 and a 52 week high of $76.95. The stock’s 50-day moving average is $58.48 and its 200-day moving average is $53.50. On average, analysts predict that Research In Motion will post $1.61 EPS next quarter. The company has a market cap of $30.846 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.64.












Back in March of this year Research in Motion acquired Viigo, the company behind the popular RSS aggregator for BlackBerry that has been known to make a top ten BlackBerry applications list or two.  Other than the announcement that Viigo for Windows was being EOLed (End of Life), we really haven’t heard much about RIM’s plans for RSS aggregation on the BlackBerry platform…  At least this was the case until yesterday when RIM announced BlackBerry News Feeds Beta for BlackBerry.


BlackBerry News Feeds is currently available in BlackBerry App World under the test center category, but, those of you familiar with Viigo will find a stripped down version of what they once new as arguably one of the best third party applications for the BlackBerry.  You can import your Viigo feeds in to BlackBerry News Feeds, but,  you can no longer get sports scores, flight arrival times, or the weather updates.  Jay Steele, Viigo’s founder and now senior director of content distribution platforms at RIM said “Viigo was actually duplicating a lot of the things RIM and a lot of other third parties were doing. So a lot of the full-featuredness is definitely going away.


Another thing that you won’t find BlackBerry News Feeds is two-way Google Reader synchronization.  The Viigo, err, RIM team is working on adding this feature, but, it’s absence makes installing BlackBerry News Feeds almost pointless if you rely on Google Reader unless you just want to see what the new app looks like.  I am sure that BlackBerry News Feeds will get better over time, however, I recommend that any BlackBerry user serious about viewing RSS feeds on their BlackBerry take a look at BerryReader.


Download BlackBerry News Feeds Beta from BlackBerry App World if you want to give it the once over…


[Via PCmag]





Reference research: research Dr. and computer research and general research and recent update




lawsmart2

วันศุกร์ที่ 12 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2553

It is manageable if you only own one blog.




Few people would climb a mountain blindfolded. Yet company executives routinely pursue markets with blinders on-ignorant of market characteristics, the competition, and barriers to entry. Good ideas and good products aren't enough; a variety of factors can prevent first-class concepts from becoming profitable businesses. Opportunities need to be carefully investigated through objective market research. Investing in research can both save a business from making costly mistakes and increase its long-term profitability.



It's a common misconception that only large companies can afford market research. Just the opposite is true; small companies cannot afford not to invest in research. When resources are limited, mistakes are more damaging. Many small businesses fail because their owners don't do their homework-before starting the business and during the first crucial months. By performing a comprehensive market investigation-on their own or by enlisting the services of professional researchers-business owners can avoid pitfalls, increase revenues, and differentiate themselves from their competition.



Types of Market Research



Customer satisfaction is probably the most common form of market research but other kinds of research are equally important. The main categories are:• Competitor analysis - identifies who it is, pinpoints the strengths and weaknesses of other firms in the same market, shows where they are having success, and what they plan to do in the future. The objective is to stay a step ahead by taking advantage of their weaknesses, or at least keep up with them.• Market opportunity assessment - size, growth rate, trends, barriers to entry.• Product analysis - features, price points; determined by talking to potential customers to assess their desires before the product is introduced.



Research can be primary or secondary and quantitative or qualitative. A business needs primary research-which involves direct contact with sources of information-if it is trying to determine very specific, detailed information or is dealing with a technology, product, or service so new that there is a very limited existing body of literature. Customer satisfaction also requires primary research.



Secondary research involves the review of a body of existing literature about a topic. It is most suitable when a company wants a general overview of a broad topic, analyst opinions, and high-level quantitative information of an existing market.



Primary research is usually more expensive than secondary. Costs vary, depending on:• Sample size• How the survey will be administered - by mail, by telephone, online, focus groups• Whether just raw survey results or analysis and recommendations are desired



If resources are limited, a company can do secondary research in-house, provided in-house staff knows what resources are available, where to access the information, and how to interpret it. The Internet makes secondary research much easier and less expensive, because so many agencies have made information available for free. For example, government agencies worldwide furnish a wealth of quantitative information. Company Websites offer much valuable information, such as press releases, annual reports and financial filings, job openings, and product data sheets.



IT analysts and management consulting firms often make a limited number of reports and white papers available for free. Some companies also furnish free white papers, but these seldom are objective assessments.



Syndicated research reports are also available. These reports consist of long-term market forecasts, often segmented by geographical regions or vertical markets. Many businesses rely heavily on quantitative market forecasts to determine whether it makes sense for them to enter a new market or develop a new product. For established markets and products, syndicated research can be quite useful, but in the case of new products or technologies, such reports are less reliable.



Make the Most of Market Research



A business can dramatically improve its chances of getting valid results by clearly defining its objectives. Asking the right questions is crucial-a company should be able to clearly state what it wants to determine. It is not the responsibility of an outside research firm to identify what the client wants from a study. It is the research firm's responsibility to clearly explain its methodology and how it will approach a study.



Additionally, a research request should not be biased in favor of a particular result. Frequently, individuals who commission research have vested interests in a particular outcome. If the results are not to their liking, they try to discredit the study and ignore its results. It is best to have high-level decision-makers who have the best interests of the entire company at heart involved in the research process.



Research should not be based on an untested assumption. For example, a company should not assume there is demand for its new widget and ask a research company to find out how the product should be priced. Before developing the widget, the company should determine if there is a market for it.



Like any other investment, market research should be measured by the return it delivers. Return can be measured both by increased profitability and cost savings derived from not making mistakes. To receive any benefit, a company has to make a commitment to act on the results of a reliable research study. Market research can be a powerful business tool for those companies willing to remove their blindfolds.







Reference research: research Dr. and home research and sport research and my social page




Social Bookmarking

วันจันทร์ที่ 8 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2553

research notebook


Citizens in Missouri will be voting November 7 to decide whether to amend the state’s constitution for medical reasons.
The vote in Missouri may have national implications regarding the future of stem cell research and its implications. Both sides of the issue have launched aggressive media campaigns regarding the issue, and politicians are choosing sides.
The question becomes what exactly does the amendment allow and disallow.
The specific wording of the ballot questions is, "Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to allow and set limitations on stem cell research, therapies, and cures which will:
• ensure Missouri patients have access to any therapies and cures, and allow Missouri researchers to conduct any research, permitted under federal law;
• ban human cloning or attempted cloning;
• require expert medical and public oversight and annual reports on the nature and purpose of stem cell research;
• impose criminal and civil penalties for any violations; and
• prohibit state or local governments from preventing or discouraging lawful stem cell research, therapies and cures?"
Opponents claim that the amendment will allow biotech companies to promote human cloning in the name of research. One organization, Missourians Against Human Cloning, has a web-site and radio ads claiming that the language of the amendment is sufficiently vague as to allow cloning if corporations justify it as research.
Other opponents claim that the amendment is vague as to whether it is in support of stem cell research or not. Still others view the amendment as acquiescing the state’s responsibility to the federal government by saying Missouri researchers would be allowed “to conduct any research permitted by federal law.”
Proponents, led by the Missouri Coalition for Lifesaving Cures, claim that the amendment is needed to make sure that politicians don’t take any action to prevent Missouri residents from accessing medical research completed with stem cells that results in new medical treatments.
The ads for the coalition feature doctors and prominent medical researchers discussing the types of diseases that scientists hope might be cured or at least treated due to stem-cell research. Specific diseases touted as targets for stem cell research include diabetes, Lou
Gehrig’s disease (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ALS), Parkinson’s disease, cancer, sickle cell disease and many others.
The coalition has enlisted the support of former Senator and Epicopalian Minister John Danforth as well.
In a statement released by the coalition, Danforth said, “I'm pro-life. During my entire career, I voted pro-life. I strongly support the Stem Cell Research and Cures Initiative because it will save lives and because it respects the sanctity of life."
The issue has many complex sides that are side-stepped or addressed only by vagaries in the advertising. Danforth mentioned his anti-abortion stance, but did not discuss why that was pertinent to the amendment. The amendment does not limit the manner in which stem cells for research may be obtained.
Anti-abortion foes have at other times opposed stem cell research because stem cells can be obtained through aborted fetuses. The amendment does not address that issue.
Both sides also have made an issue of the discussion of human cloning. Opponents claim that the bill will allow or possibly even force government funding of human cloning. Proponents say the language of the amendment specifically forbids human cloning.
The amendment is a designed to define the state’s approach to a national issue aand will be decided Nov. 7.





Reference research: business research and law research and shopping research and my bookmark page




News Blogs

วันศุกร์ที่ 5 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2553

research medical center


When you consider starting a business then you need to do a little bit of research. The research will help you see how successful the business would most likely become. You can also find out the small details within a field regarding a business that we often forget or aren't aware of because the business isn't in operation yet. Here are ten ways to help you research a business opportunity.

1. Talk to experts that you know that are already in the field. You need to speak to people that are already in the type of business that you are interested in. You need to ask them questions. You want to know basically how it works from start to finish and any problems that the person may run into. You want to basically know what it is like on a regular basis to run a business. You need to talk to a few people in order to get a more in depth information. You need to speak to the owners of the business instead of just an employee since the owners does know exactly what goes on from day to day in the business.

2. See how profitable it is. You want to make sure that that the type of business that you want to start will make you enough money. The important thing is to consider if it is worth it depending upon how much time and energy you have to put into it. If the other businesses in the area are struggling to keep their doors open each day then it probably isn't a good idea since those other businesses don't generate enough sales or services rendered.

3. Can your company be better than the competition? You need to ask yourself that question. If every person in town always want to go a certain company for a certain item or even service then you need to become better than the competition. You want your customers to think that your company is better than your competition even with excellent customer service and cheap prices.

4. Does the type of business that you are interested in starting require a lot of funding in the beginning? Some companies are cheaper than others to start in the beginning. You need to figure out if you will have enough money for advertising and all the other expenses. You want to have enough money saved in the bank for your personal use too besides money for business. It is important to able to support yourself for basic living expenses along with being able to have enough money for your business too.

5. Will you be able to generate enough sales? Is their enough people in the city or town to offer services or items to the customers? You need to think about it. If your competition doesn't have a website then make sure that you have a business website. You always want to offer the next best thing or something else that they don't offer. If your competition doesn't offer credit accounts then you probably should offer credit accounts to business owners and individuals. You want to be different than your competition. If your competition doesn't advertise on radio then you need to advertise on radio.

You need to go to the city to look all the new companies that have been started recently within the last few years. Make sure to see how many of them ever renewed their business license. Look to see how many companies haven't been successful in the same field that you want to start a business in. You want to see many companies have been successful offering the same type of products or items. The records will give you a general idea of how well your company should succeed.




Reference research: beauty research and health research and sport research and recent update




social bookmark

วันพุธที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ. 2553

The dream is to get a discussion going on your site.


Moo cards for blogging workshop by Mexicanwave





If you are new to the world of blogging you may have asked yourself, "How does WordPress work?" Word Press is actually one of the easiest ways that you can make your own blog or website without any technical knowledge. First, let's talk about adding a new post to your WordPress blog. You will first need to login to your WordPress admin control panel. You can do this by typing in your website address followed by the /wp-admin extension. After you've logged in you will see an option to add a new post on the left side of the page. Here, you will be allowed to enter the title of your new post as part of the body of your new post. You will also be able to enter a description for your post at the bottom of the page. If you want to optimize your post for search engines you can even add tags for your post. In WordPress, there are not any limits on how many tags you can have per post. It is probably a good idea to add five tags per post.

After you have written your post you are ready to publish it. If you have already created categories then you can select which categories you want your post to be published in. No matter which category you publish your post in, the post will still appear on the homepage because it is the newest post. If you want to change or edit your categories you can do this easily by clicking on the categories manager on the left side of the screen. The categories manager in WordPress will allow you to add new categories, edit the names of categories, and even delete a category. If you want to optimize your WordPress blog for search engines than it is very important for you to have several different categories. It is very important for you to understand what a category is. A category is a way to organize posts on your website that may have slightly different topics.

If you want to know how WordPress works then you may be wondering how to add a new page. If you want to add a new page click on the pages butron on the left side of the screen. This will allow you to add, edit, or even delete a page on your website. It is important for you to understand the difference between a post and a page. A post can be added to any category while a page is a stand-alone static page of text. Most blog owners on WordPress choose have 4 to 5 pages that give people a way to contact them and give them a little bit of information about the website. Hopefully, this has given you a little bit of insight as to how WordPress works and how you can optimize it for the Google search engine.




Source article: free blog site and Journal and free blog space and Journal Blogspot and Famous Blogger
blog

วันอาทิตย์ที่ 31 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2553

research methodology


You know how hard it is when a family pet goes missing, and then actually stays lost. There is the moment when you have to explain what's going on to the children, the part where you have to paste signs across the neighborhood, and the worst element - the waiting for your beloved bed to hopefully find its way back home. But now something even worse is happening as these 'lost pets' are being picked up and sold to universities for dissection and medical research in its science labs.

It's bad enough to tell your children that Sparky is lost, but it'd be much worse to tell them that Sparky is being dissected by the college students downtown. The Humane Society estimated that about 18,000 dogs and cats are picked up each year and then sold to university laboratories. Some of these animals are found through classified 'looking for a good home' adoption listings, and some are lost pets.

Those who scoop up the stray animals and sell them to labs are called Class B Dealers, and it is estimated that there are fewer of them around today than in the past, but they are still around. These Class B Dealers scour the streets of neighborhoods looking for dogs and cats that may have become lost from their homes. They also search the classified ads for animals that have been listed for adoption. The Humane Society estimates that 20% of all animals that are used in medical research labs come from these Class B Dealers

Animal advocacy groups are now hoping that it will be made illegal to sell strays for scientific purposes. However on the other side of the coin, medical research labs are arguing that animals that come from unknown origins are not used in their testings. Animal advocacy leaders are hoping that a change will be imminent. They believe that only animals that are donated by their owners, are not strays, or are living in a shelter should be given over to medical research labs.

Right now the bill, entitled 'Buck's Bill' after a black hound dog who was mistreated by a Class B Dealer, is still up for debate in Congress. Many people treat their pets as part of the family, almost as if they're just another relative. It is heart wrenching when a pet becomes lost, but at least if Buck's Bill were passed it would be a much less likely scenario that the cherished pet would end up in a medical laboratory.

Associated Press, " Humane Society Pushes to Ban Pet Sales to Labs." MSNBC News. URL: (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18662520/)




Reference research: business research and health research and sport research and my bookmark page




Blog Layout Examples

วันเสาร์ที่ 30 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2553

research and development


Introduction

There is a growing urgency among sex researchers to bridge the overwhelming gap between two dominant approaches to understanding sexuality – the positivist, empirical approach and the social constructionist approach (Bancroft, 2000). While on the one hand, it is undeniable that such fundamental biological processes as genetics, hormones, and biological development play important roles in the expression of sexuality at every level, it is also undeniable, on the other hand, that a culture’s discourse around sexuality also influences sexual expression in ways that are not necessarily amenable to quantifiable, empirical study. Although it is generally acknowledged that there is some kind of interaction between individual biology and culture, these two strains of research have not yet found a shared language which mutually satisfies the two camps, and no methodologically useful way of modeling this interaction has been widely accepted among sex researchers. If we hope to understand sexuality in all its complexity, we must account for both sides of the story. The positivists must acknowledge as legitimate and incorporate into their research the important cultural factors that influence sexuality; in parallel, the social constructionists must acknowledge that basic genetic and biological processes affect cultural expressions of gender and sex.

Sex research needs simplified models of sexuality that are valuable insofar as they help create positive change (Bancroft, 2000). Dynamical systems theory may be a possible solution. Already utilized in fields as diverse as developmental psychology (cf. Thelen and Smith, 1994), artificial intelligence and philosophy of mind (Clark, 1998), meteorology (Lorenz 1963), anthropology (Bateson, 1980), and curriculum development (Doll, 1993), dynamical systems theory (DST) differs from both the traditional medical approach and the critical social constructionist approach in its theoretical assumptions and, more significantly, in its methodological approach to studying its subject. Dynamical systems theory may provide a practical, coherent way to model sexual development, identity, and culture in a way that accounts for the complex interactions between individual biology and psychology with social forces, accounting for both individual variability as well as social-level characteristics.

Dynamical systems theory has been used with increasing frequency in social psychology and related fields, though its original use was in physical sciences (Lewin, 1943). Today its dominant use in the social sciences is in the realm of cognitive science and developmental psychology, where it is used to explain motor development, cognition, and perception (cf. Thelen and Smith, 1994). There is also a growing agenda in social psychology to model social interaction using dynamic models (cf. Nowak and Vallacher, 1998).

Two lines of research in sexuality currently use dynamical systems theory. First, Rodgers (2000) is using an epidemiology-inspired non-linear model in studying sexual debut and pregnancy in adolescents. Second, an emerging application of the theory is in the development of gender identity – a research agenda newly adopted by Fausto-Sterling (2003), examining the development of gender in infants to one year olds. This promises to be a highly useful agenda which will establish a precedent in the fields of sex and gender research.
In this paper, I discuss the theoretical gap left between the positivists and the social constructionists. I then offer initial and tentative ideas about a dynamical systems framework which has the potential to bridge the gap. I give a basic overview of dynamical systems theory, including the goals of a dynamical systems research agenda, and essential constructs and principles that govern the structure of dynamical systems. I then offer historical and philosophical justification for applying the theory to health behavior, followed by three possible strains of sex research which might usefully apply dynamical systems. Next, I describe some potential shortcomings of DST. Finally, I discuss the research and practical implications that dynamical systems may have on the field of sex research. I rely heavily on the work of Bancroft – a psychiatrist by training – (2000) and colleagues, Clark – a philosopher of mind – (1998), Nowak and Vallacher – social psychologists – (1998; 1994), and Thelen and Smith – developmental psychologists – (1994, 2000). The interdisciplinarity of my sources illustrates the complexity and adaptability of dynamical models.

Dominant Theories in Sex Research
In this section, I will review the two dominant camps in current sex research, here referred to as positivism and social constructionism. For each, I will give a brief overview of the main characteristics of the approach, followed by a summary of their strengths and their weaknesses as epistemologies of sexuality. I will conclude with a brief overview of the problems each has had in past sex research and a discussion about what issues researchers might face without an adequate solution to the problems presented by each – in short, the need for an interactionist account that is simple, plausible, and yet falsifiable.

Positivism
Positivism is a dominant camp which relies on observation, induction, and experimentation to test or refute hypotheses based on the outcome of experimentation (Glaz, Rimer, and Lewis, 2002). As the most common and historically most relied on scientific approach, the positivist approach forms the foundation for the vast majority of modern science – indeed modern science is defined by its reliance on empiricism to deduce truth. Positivism is good at investigation, at asking answerable questions and offering methods for answering them that appear objective. Methods used by positivists include what we commonly understand as the “scientific method” – proposing a theory and then testing it empirically. Any question not answerable by these methods is meaningless for the positivists. Where it falls short is in its assumption that measurement is an accurate reflection of the truth and in its emphasis on the individual, rather than the social or cultural. Fields typified by the positivist approach include biology, chemistry, medicine, and much of psychology.

Social Constructionism
Bancroft (2000) refers to this camp as “post-modern,” (336) a fitting conceptualization of this theoretical perspective borne from the work of postmodern philosophers like Foucault (1972) and Derrida (1981). Social constructionism relies on the process of discovery as the source of knowledge (Glanz, Rimer, and Lewis, 2002). An essential element of the epistemology of social constructionism is the inability to separate the perspective of the observer (or researcher) from that which he is observing. Methods used in social constructionist research include qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews, ethnography, and critical readings of scientific and cultural work. Reduction or decontextualization of these data renders them meaningless for social constructionists. In terms of its shortcomings, as Richard Parker put it so succinctly, “If one takes a social constructionist position, how does one account for the possibility that individuals make choices?” (Bancroft, 2000 p. 314). Social constructionism is the theory of the social, and at its logical end it denies the agency of the individual to make decisions independent of the social discourse. Without some breakdown of reality into smaller chunks, researchers find themselves equipped with a one-to-one map of reality, an unmanageable account which describes rather than predicts. Fields typified by the social constructionist approach include anthropology, some sociology, and educational ethnography. The humanities, such as comparative literature and history, also often take a social constructionist stance in their critiques of culture, politics, and science.

The Need for an Interactionist Account
It should be noted that both camps generally acknowledge that each has a claim to some of the truth and hardly any researcher would deny that a great deal of interaction takes place, but neither paradigm is equipped to manage the questions posed by the other, and neither can account fully for the data already at hand. As a single example, a study of men in Scotland and in China found at their responses to injections of androgens did not differ on the biological measurement – namely nocturnal penile tumescence – but did differ on the psychological assessment of mood and level of sexual interest (Bancroft, 2000). If all human biology is essentially the same, how can a positivist, biomedical account of the data explain the more subjective response of the two groups? And if sexuality is cultural, how can the social constructivist account adequately explain the similarity in biological response, given the difference in psychological response?

Given the shortcomings of both paradigms, what must an interactionist account do? It must create a uniform language which social constructivists and logical empiricists can share, a language which can explain not only the influence of pre-natal hormones on the development of sexual orientation in American culture, but also the influence of American culture on the sexual identity of Navaho people living on reservations and those living in cities or rural areas. That is a tall order. To finish the quote from Richard Parker:
I see it in some ways as the social constructionist’s dilemma: If one takes a social constructionist position, how does one account for the possibility that individuals make choices? It’s because they operate in a field that does give them options, so we really have to pay a good deal of attention to that.” (Bancroft, 2000 p. 314)

An interactionist theory must model the field in which the individual has choice, but not infinite choice. It must represent the constraints on individual choice, and it must represent individual variability to account for different people in the same situation making different choices. It must represent relationships – between an individual and her culture, between more than one culture, between an individual and his own biology – in a systematic, concrete, and falsifiable way, to satisfy the empiricists. Yet it must not reduce or decontextualize data and human behavior, in order to satisfy the social constructionists. Given the complexity of the real world, how can a researcher manage these interactions theoretically in order to make them accessible to investigation?

What is Dynamical Systems Theory?
Dynamical systems theory is not a theory about human behavior or any other single type of complex system: it is a theory about systems generally, which can be applied to any system whose behavior is determined by interactions among difference and differential equations. It is “an area of mathematics used to describe the behavior of complex systems by employing differential and difference equations” (Eliasmith, 2003). As such, DST enthusiasts sometimes present the theory as an overarching metatheory of everything –for example, one biologist who applies dynamical systems theory to the global carbon cycle describes his research interest as “he role of life in the Earth system” (Volk, 2003). DST critics make the same claim and point to it as a failing in the theory – it accounts for too much. Like evolution, it is difficult to disprove and may therefore lose its usefulness insofar as it is virtually unfalsifiable. I would posit that there is some potential ground for both claims. With applications as diverse as physics, developmental psychology, and curriculum design, it is hard to argue that any aspect of scientific endeavor about the natural world – of which humans are a part – cannot be modeled effectively in a dynamical approach. Hence, sexual researchers may establish that sexual behavior at any particular level may be modeled with difference or differential equations, just as evolution, population and predator-prey ratios, and infants learning to walk may be modeled thus. Dynamical systems is about interaction, and sex research is currently torn in its need for a coherent account of interaction.

What, if any, aspect of sexuality, is a dynamical system? Before I answer, I want to distinguish between real versus mathematical dynamical systems. A “real” dynamical system is anything that exists in space which changes over time (Guinti, 1995). Given that definition, all aspects of sexuality are dynamic systems, from sexual dimorphism to the social construction of sexuality. A mathematical dynamical system is a mathematical representation of the change process a real system undergoes (Guinti, 1995). The model, unlike the real system, is constant, representing the change, rather than practicing change. The model consists of time, the set of all possible states in which the system might, at any given time exist, and “a set of functions… which tell us the state of the system at any instant…” (Guinti, 1995 p. 551). This distinction begs the question: what disciplines of sexuality (given that they are dynamical systems), if any, can be represented mathematically this way?

At least two research agendae are already using dynamical systems. Rodgers (2000), Rodgers and Rowe (1993), and Rodgers and Buster (1998) applied an epidemiological mathematical model to sociosexual behavior, a model called Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA). While some express concern about the language of the model, which relies on epidemiological terminology of infection and contagions, the mathematical model powerfully account for sexual onset and risk for pregnancy (Rodgers and Buster, 1998). Use of non-linear dynamic modeling in epidemiology is traditional, and this application of the model to social, rather than biological, functioning takes a step toward representing humans at the behavioral and social level. The other research agenda is the exploration of the development of gender in infants (Fausto-Sterling, 2003). This research is in its preliminary stages and has produced no data yet. But I will propose here that DST can be used to model sexuality at every level, from the genetic and hormonal to inter-culture interactions.
In order to explore the extent of the possibility of using this system in the interdisciplinary study of sexuality, in this section I will identify six major goals of dynamical systems it relates to human development and behavior. Next, I will define several essential concepts which are important to the theory. Then I will discuss how these constructs are operationalized within a research agenda, in order to build and test a model.

Goals of DST Modeling
Thelen and Smith (1994) describe 6 majors goals of a dynamic theoretical ground for human development, which are equally relevant to sexuality and provide a good starting point for discussing what DST can do for sex research that we have not yet been able to do with other conceptual frameworks. These 6 goals are:
1. To understand the origins of novelty
2. To reconcile global regularities with local variability, complexity, and context-specificity.
3. To integrate developmental data at many levels of explanation.
4. To provide a biologically plausible yet non-reductionist account of the development of behavior.
5. To understand how local processes lead to global outcomes.
6. To establish a theoretical basis for generating and interpreting empirical research. (Thelen and Smith, 19994, p. xviii)

“Novelty” is the emergence of a new behavior. In the context of human development, this includes things like learning to walk or produce language. In sexuality, novel behavior may be sexual debut, infection with HIV, first homosexual behavior, or starting contraceptive use.

Global regularities are those aspects of human behavior that seem universal – all people learn to walk and talk. In the context of sexuality, quite simply, all living people are have genitals and nervous systems. Local variability is a reference to individual differences inside those global regularities – people learn to speak different languages depending on their environment. In sexuality, many people are attracted to people of the opposite sex, some to people of the same sex, and others to both.

Integrating developmental data at many levels of explanation refers to the experimental and theoretical process of modeling and explaining the available data about human development. I would transfer this goal to sexuality and set the goal of modeling and explaining the available data about human sexuality – for example the difference between male and female sexual responsiveness. This is a complex problem which no model has yet resolved. Dynamical systems theory may be able to clarify it.

Potentially the most important goal of DST applied to human development, establishing a biologically plausible yet non-reductionist explanation for human behavior is key to wedding the positivists to the social constructionists in a single language which satisfies both. The biological plausibility establishes a basic, undeniable connection with the physical world. The non-reductionistic nature of the explanation avoids the social constructionist critique of positivism that it bases generalizations about humans on deprived stimuli, overly deterministic, heuristically questionable theoretical approaches and conclusions.

To understand how local processes lead to global outcomes in sex research may take many forms, from the emergence of a homosexual identity from a particular combination of culture with pre-natal hormone levels to the emergence of dominant sexual groups with minority groups oppressed and subjugated. Dynamical systems is equipped readily to cope with the biological processes involved in sexuality. It will need a great deal of careful operationalization for the more social aspects, as we will see.

Key Concepts
Systems are components interacting in an organized way (Nowak and Vallacher, 1998). Closed systems consist of components interacting in the absence of external influence. Open systems consist of components interacting both internally (see “intrinsic dynamics” below) as well as in response to the “suprasystem,” or to external influences. In the context of sexuality, researchers may analyze many different levels of analysis, from genetics to cultures. Both can be conceptualized (and, I will argue, operationalized) as systems.

Dynamics refers to the nature of change (Nowak and Vallacher, 1998). Sexual science is largely concerned with change processes – from the process of sexual anatomical differentiation in vitro to the mutual interaction and influence among cultures. Dynamic systems in this sense are characterized by several qualities, including intrinsic dynamics, emergence, and equifinality, which will be elaborated below. These characteristics form a system which is deterministic but not predictive, a characteristic which may be problematic in the social sciences, as discussed later in this paper.

Phase Space or State Space is “a visual means of representing the state of a particular system; phase-space being the entire range of values that are possible within a particular system” (Puddifoot, 2000 p. 85). A phase space is a picture or mathematical representation of the system. It is the assessment of phase spaces that methodologically differentiates a dynamical systems approach to social science from the standard statistical approaches.

Attractors are phase spaces toward which a dynamical system will tend (Puddifoot, 2000; Clark, 1998). They can be understood as two general types – “classical” attractors, drawn directly from mechanical models, and “strange” attractors, which are characterized by a systems tendency toward a state (or “basin of attraction” [Clark, 1998 p. 100]) which it never quite reaches, but rather circles around.

Trajectories are the paths possible through the state space, which are determined by the interaction of the systems components and the attractors of the field (Clark 1998).

Degrees of Freedom are the scope of the states possible within the phase space (Clark, 1998). These are not infinite, but rather constrained by the real parameters that govern the system and the subsequent dynamics of the components’ interactions (interdeterminacy) (Thelen and Smith, 1994). Degrees of freedom is a particularly important concept in the modeling of a dynamic system in order to make it represent the real system, rather than acting merely as a conceptual framework or heuristic.

Bifurcations are phase transitions, where the system shifts to a different trajectory when the control parameters cross a threshold (Thelen and Smith, 1994). If we modeled human sexual response dynamically, we would likely find that orgasm represents a bifurcation in the dynamic system of sexual arousal, where the system behaves in a qualitatively different way when neuromuscular tension associated with arousal crosses a threshold.

Intrinsic Dynamics – This refers to changes that occur within the system in the absence of external influence (Clark, 1998). A key characteristic of intrinsic dynamics in complex systems is that from minute alterations in the parameters of the systems can arise large-scale changes (Doll, 1993). The classic expression of this is the so-called “butterfly effect,” postulated by Lorenz (196x), that a butterfly flapping its wings in Mexico may lead to a tornado in Texas.

Periodicity refers to the cyclic structure of some systems (CITE). Periodicity is observable in many human behaviors such as the sleep-wake cycle, hormonal fluctuations in women across their menstrual cycles, and, arguably, in sexual response.

Equifinality is the capacity for systems to arrive at the same end via different means (Fausto-Sterling, 2003). This is a key characteristic of complex systems because it is their robustness in the face of perturbation which illustrates their internal structure(Thelen and Smith, 1994). Philosophically, it presents issues which social constructionists may find problematic, as I will discuss later.

Perturbation is interference with the functioning of the system from a source external to the system.
At times of transition, when attractors are not strongly coherent, small changes in the organism, the task, or the environment can lead to profound reorganizations…. ven relatively minor and sometimes seemingly unconnected manipulations have a major impact on behavior. Before the transition, and after the behavior is well-established, these same factors do not disrupt ongoing performance.” (Thelen and Smith, 1994, p. 87)
Perturbation is a key tool in developing and testing a dynamic model because it allows the researcher to set the initial state (perturb the system) and then watch it run (internal dynamics) (Thelen and Smith, 1994).

Emergence, also known as self-organization, is a pattern of behavior that both arises from and influences the internal functioning from the system (Clark, 1998). To put it another way, according to Nowak (1998):
Rather than being imposed on the system from above or from outside the system altogether, the higher order structures emerge from the internal workings of the system itself. In this process, the system loses degrees of freedom, and the state of the system may be described by a small number of variables. Ironically, then, complex systems can sometimes be described by fewer variables than can relatively simple systems. (53)

Emergence, then, is one primary principle of dynamical systems. It is also a primary differentiating factor from conventional health behavior theories. Dominant theories such as Health Belief Model and Transtheoretical Model are componential, describing behavior as arising from controlled variables that are immediately available within the theoretical framework for “twiddling” (Clark 1998, p. 99) in order to change the structure of the behavior. Emergent properties of a system cannot be altered directly; rather one must change an element within the system and determine if that change results in the change in emergence one sought. However, dynamic systems as a rule have two characteristics which make that twiddling difficult. First, systems tend toward equilibrium, or balance, and some systems are extremely robust and will tolerate a great deal of alteration before a change happens. Second, as mentioned above, minute changes in parameters can give rise to large changes. The metaphor for this characteristic is Lorenz’s butterfly metaphor: if a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it may eventually give rise to a hurricane in Texas (Doll, 1993).

There are a few additional characteristics of dynamic systems worth noting: chaotic systems are deterministic, but non-predictive. These systems are orderly in their disorder – that is to say, although we could map all the potential positions of the system, and we can follow its trajectory, we cannot predict with certainty the state of the system at any given time.

Thus, a “dynamical system” is an organization of parts, wherein all elements behave according to fundamental rules, from which cooperation emerges self-organized behavior. By formulating simple rules followed by multiple variables within a system, dynamical systems accounts for emergent system-level properties that do not exist in any single element of the system.

Modeling a System
These constructs, by themselves, provide a useful metaphor for describing human social systems – one can imagine organizations which function according to these principles and assign certain characteristics as “emergent properties” of those systems. However, a greater potential power for DST, and its greatest distinction for other interactionist models and from social constructionist uses of dynamical inspired metaphor, is the actual process of modeling systems in order to quantify them. DST is not mere metaphor; it is not simply a framework in which hang descriptions of interactions. It can be used as a concrete, specific formulation for studying, understanding, and potentially changing systems in more complex ways than social science currently does.

The process of generating a model of a system is relatively straightforward on the surface. In order to generate a model of a system, there are essentially four steps, per Thelen and Smith, 1997):

1. Identify the elements which change within the system – the statistical model’s equivalent would be the dependent variables.
2. Hypothesize principles which govern the interaction of the elements
3. Express these principles as difference or differential equations
4. Define “plausible parameters” for the system (Thelen and Smith, 1997, p. 578)

Once the equations have been fit with parameters, the equations generate a trajectory within the phase space, which the modeler can compare with preexisting data and with empirical evidence about the behavior being modeled. If the trajectory matches the data, then the model presumably matches the real system informing the observed behavior. If the trajectory does not match the data, the modeler may alter the parameters until she finds a match (Thelen and Smith, 1997). The practice of establishing the state of a field at a given time follows Lewin’s foundational work (1943).

However, a characteristic of complex, dynamic systems is the emergence of large changes due to minute characteristics of the initial parameters. The metaphor for this characteristic is Lorenz’s butterfly metaphor: if a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, it may eventually give rise to a hurricane in Texas (Doll, 1993). This becomes problematic in the measurement of complex systems because the assessment of what elements are significant in the system, what types of interaction they have, and what mathematical model best represents those interactions must be extremely precise. It also becomes the primary mode of testing the model, by way of perturbing the system in order to generate a precisely understood initial state; from that initial state, the researcher lets the system run and notes its behavior. She then gives the system a different initial state and lets it run, noting if the system is stable – i.e., it returns to a given state – or unstable – i.e., returns to a different state under different conditions (Thelen and Smith, 1994).

The output of these models differs substantially from that of traditional models. Rather than generating statistical models, which predict future behavior of an individual or groups based on statistical representation of a population samples’ behavior, these models create a multidimensional phase space which defines all the possible states of the system at any given time – the state space. Its validation lies in the ability of the system to reproduce reality, rather than in its “validity,” as measured statistically. Particularly in modeling motor or biological processes, the model is essentially a direct representation of the system. In this, DST can be remarkably powerful. However, this becomes problematic, as I discuss below, in terms of the operationalization of complex social-level behaviors.

Historical and Philosophical Justification for Applying DST to Sexuality
How do these goals, concepts, and methods for modeling systems help resolve the problems related to both positivism and social constructionism? To review, the primary problem with these two approaches was their failure to bridge both biological, essentialist elements of sexuality to social, cultural, and interpersonal elements of sexuality. In this section of the paper, I put forward two propositions:
o I propose that dynamical systems is a historically and philosophically justified step in the progression of sexual science, incorporating the scientific roots of postmodernism into the social sciences.
o I propose further that a dynamical systems resolves this problem by modeling both the biological and the social in one uniform, unifying language that is appropriate for both.

Dynamical systems is a historically and philosophically justified.
To begin with, there is no logical reason to suppose that human beings follow different rules than any other element in the universe. The separation of mind from body – that is human being’s minds from the environment – dates at least to Descartes (1641/1996), who fundamentally divided human existence into these two categories and impacted the structure of studying humans. This philosophy of dualism has dominated positivist, logical empiricist science for the last 400 years. More recent work in anthropology and philosophy advocates reuniting mind and body, conceptually acknowledging the interrelatedness and complexity of individual human beings interacting with each other and their environment (e.g., Bateson, 1980; Clark, 1995). This shift represents a fundamental change in epistemology, from rationalist epistemology to “recursive” or “ecological” epistemology (Bateson, 1980), which unites the thinker to the subject of his thoughts, each reciprocally affecting the other. Following Heidegger and his “Dasein” (“being there”) (1927/1962), this different epistemology acknowledges that mind and identity cannot be separated in any meaningful way from body, environment, and experience. Thus our study of humans must be informed more complexly by the nature of a human’s interaction with the world, the structure and meaning of “mind” or “consciousness,” and how body and mind mediate as a unit the individual’s navigation through the world.

The historical antecedents of dynamical systems reach beyond the turn of the twentieth century. Lewin’s 1935 exploration of field theory in social science established the foundation for dynamical systems research. Noted by Thelen and Smith (1994) as a prime innovator in the field of dynamics applied to psychology, Kurt Lewin interpreted psychological research in the first half of the twentieth century in terms of field theory, then most commonly used in philosophy and physics (cf., Lewin 1940).

Given these historical and philosophical roots, dynamical systems represents an alternative epistemology, based not on the dualism represented by the dichotomy between the positivists and the social constructivists, but on an integration of body, mind, and world. In the very equations which define dynamic interactions, environmental factors and organismic factors interact interdependently, bringing a new and potentially powerful method for modeling behavior of systems, human and otherwise, biological and social, microscopic and macroscopic.

Dynamical systems models the biological and the social in one uniform, unifying language.
Dynamical systems consist of multiples components interacting in an organized way which gives rise to emergent phenomena. To explain emergent phenomena requires an approach that has two characteristics:
1. “[It must be] well suited to modeling both organismic and environmental parameters” (Clark, 1998, p. 113). Emergence happens from the interaction of multiple layers of organism with environment and mind. Due to the multidimensional nature of sexuality, the individual responding to and interacting with his environment, our field requires a theory that can account both for variations within the organic creature, as well as the social and ecological events which surround him. Thus this rule reflects what is necessary to describe emergence and what is necessary to describe sexual phenomena.
2. “[It must] model them both in a uniform vocabulary” (Clark, 1998, p 113). Under the essential principle of parsimony, a single language to describe these excruciatingly complex behaviors brings much needed clarity to a theory which might otherwise marry multiple theories together in a mangled approximation of complete explanation.

DST offers these two primary principles (Clark, 1998) which are potentially extremely useful in understanding sex. The positivists and the social constructions have critically responded to each other, but their language has been completely different, based on their different epistemological approaches to the subject of sexuality. While the positivists have couched their research in dualistic, reductionist, empirical terms, social constructionists have discussed sexuality in terms of dominant discourses, social processes, and post-modern conceptualizations of meaning embedded in culture.

A dynamical systems approach is not necessarily an absolute departure from more traditional positivist theoretical bases, nor from typical constructionist perspectives. I propose that an emergent, dynamical explanation provides a likely match with measurable phenomena in the realm of sexual behavior. Unlike componential explanations, dynamical systems, as an emergence-oriented theory, can provide a manageable yet rich representation of judgment, choice, action, and belief precisely because it acknowledges and accounts for complexity, the usual purview of the social constructionists. Indeed, it may provide the most powerful theoretical background for determining an individual’s state space within a given system, and thus may suggest the most effective mode of intervention to create positive change in that person’s health state.
Dynamical systems weds the two by accounting for essentialist functions like biology, anatomy, and physiology, and their interactions with environmental forces such as social processes and the discourses which surround the organism. It involves both in a single, functional language. A more complete account of precisely how this language works is outside the scope of this paper, but further work in the mathematical details of dynamical systems modeling will elucidate the exact nature of how this method captures the interaction of both (Clark, 1998; Thelen and Smith, 1994; Thelen and Smith, 1997).

Possibilities and Precedents for Using DST
So far I have used the term “sex research” unclearly. My reason for that is the basic lack of clarity of the term, in the sense that sex research is dizzyingly interdisciplinary. While Fausto-Sterling (2003) is developing a gender development research program based in close parallel with the motor development research of Thelen and Smith (1994), social psychologists around the world are building research on the possibility of modeling human social interactions dynamically (Nowak and Vallacher, 1998). This is a young, immature, unstable field with many questions remaining unanswered, but the metaphors are powerful and persuasive; and the logical consistency of identical models for both social and biological behavior is strong (see above). Thus in this section I argue for the intriguing and appealing possibility that this single framework can be used in many different kinds of sex research. For the sake of simplicity, I will present here two possible areas of research. The first is the agenda already taken on by Fausto-Sterling, creating a dynamical systems model of gender development in infants to one year olds. The second is an adaptation of the Kinsey Institute’s Dual Control model of sexual response to a dynamical systems framework. For each, I will examine the possibilities of dynamical systems, in the context of social psychological and biological research that sets precedents for similar research agendas.
Fausto-Sterling (2003) has begun the initial phases of establishing the phase space for the development of gender in infants. Her inspiration is the developmental work of Thelen and Smith (1994), whose dynamical approach to motor development in infants has established precedents for applying dynamical systems to developmental psychology. Fausto-Sterling’s work is extremely new and has not yet generated independent data, but the current status of the work is the massive assessment of gender development data, finding what we know definitely, what findings need replication, and where we have utter gaps in our knowledge. By framing gender development as a dynamical system, Fausto-Sterling provides a practical, suitably complex system for examining what has been a key area of dispute between the positivists (who typically argue for an essentialist origin of gender) and the social constructionists (who typically argue for a socially constructed origin of gender). Because dynamical systems includes in its functional elements both relevant aspects of the organism and relevant aspects of the environment, it provides a bridge for calculating the nature of the coupling of multiple layers of interaction.

Adapting the Dual Control Model of sexual response, developed at the Kinsey Institute (Bancroft and Janssen, 2000) poses a possible application of DST immediately available in sex research. The dual control model, in brief, proposes that a mechanism in the central nervous system has inhibitory and excitatory capability, and that individuals vary in their “excitability” and “inhibition.” The inhibitory process is divided theoretically into two processes, one based on fear of performance failure and another based on fear of consequences from the sexual arousal. People who are high on the first are prone to sexual dysfunction, and people who are low on the second are prone to sexual risk-taking. Currently the model is assessed with a survey, on which participants receive a score for each of the three variables. This is useful for assessing an individual’s proneness to risk-taking (which can lead to negative health consequences) or to sexual dysfunction (which can lead to negative emotional situations, relationship issues, and inability to reproduce).

To adapt this theory to a dynamical model, we would probably need three equations, one for each function within the central nervous system, interacting dynamically over time. In order to build a dynamic model, we must identify the elements which function within the system, hypothesize the principles which govern the interaction of the elements, express these principles as difference or differential equations, and then define plausible parameters for the system. The elements which function within the system are the body and mind of the individual, plus any external stimulus involved in his arousal. The principles which govern the interaction of those elements, per Bancroft and Janssen (2000) are the central excitation and inhibition of arousal. To express these functions as difference or differential equations is outside the scope of this paper, but I would suggest a model similar to that found in Thelen, Schoner, Scheier, and Smith (2000), which coupled a motor field with a perceptual field and relied on the nature of the coupling between these two. Reasonable parameters for the fields would be defined by the legitimate boundaries of human capacity for excitation and inhibition (i.e., it is not plausible for a possible parameter to allow for continuous, perpetual orgasm). With a hypothesized mathematical system, with three equations simultaneously solving for the same variable over time, we can collect data from individuals who go through a process of sexual arousal and perturb the system in ways that explore what attractors may alter the functioning of the system at any possible state in the phase space.

Problems with DST
There seems little argument with the claim that sexuality is dynamic, involving mutually influencing systems, both organic and social (if one can legitimately distinguish social systems as “not organic”), from which arise behaviors which are, in theory, at least broadly predictable. Operationalizing this conception in terms of dynamical systems theory, however, is far from simple. Neither the positivists nor the social constructionists would feel fully comfortable with dynamical systems, and it is important to delineate where DST falls short, from each of those perspectives.

DST and the Positivists
Critiques of dynamical systems theory from the positivist perspective generally take three forms. First, there is the possibility that some systems cannot generate predictions, which flies in the face of positivism. Second, there is the difficulty in operationalizing complex concepts like “social process.” And third, there are mathematical hurdles to be crossed in transferring knowledge from a statistical standard to a dynamical systems model.

Positivism asserts not only that reality can be tested and measured, but that from those measurements we can derive predictions. Dynamical modeling, although it certainly assumes that mathematical representation can accurately illustrate a system, generates non-predictive models in extremely complex systems (like the weather) (Doll, 1993). I would respond to this criticism by pointing out that if a system is genuinely chaotic, it is a Sisyphusian endeavor for researchers to attempt to formulate predictive models. Better we should know what is unpredictable than never admit that the system has, indeed, beaten our best science.

Another criticism from the positivists generates from the difficulty in operationalizing the elements of the system. Puddifoot (2000) focuses on the difficulty of operationalizing the concept of “social process,” a fundamental problem with which any dynamic model of a social system much content. This critique is a good example of the painstaking care social psychological, sociological, anthropological, and other social science disciplines must take in operationalizing concepts which otherwise would seem well-established within their discipline. Here the social constructionists will be useful in their analytical critiques of the positivists construction of terminology within different experimental frameworks.
A positivist critique of the EMOSA (Stoolmiller, 1998) focused on the statistical aspects of the model.

DST and the Social Constructionists
Dynamic modeling is fundamentally more positivist than social constructionist insofar as it (1) posits the possibility of empirically validating a pre-constructed theory and (2) assumes it can accurately represent mathematically a system which exists in space and time. Yet it matches the social constructionist agenda closer than purely statistical representations of a theory because it is explicitly a mathematical representation of change, of relationship, and it is not necessarily predictive (however deterministic) in extremely complex systems.

Another aspect which matches it more with social constructionist work is its non-impoverishment of data. Dynamical systems want to represent human behavior at every level in all its complexity, without reducing it to the interaction among heuristics; dynamical interaction is interaction among real concepts in space and time, not hypothetical constructs.
Social constructionist criticism of EMOSA (see Bancroft, 2000) focuses not on the methods but on the labels and language used in the operationalization of the concepts. Presented at a conference on the role of theory in sex research (Rodgers, 2000), many critiques of this work focused on the language used (“virgins and nonvirgins” rather than “intercourse experienced or inexperienced” or “sexual debut”, etc) and the utility of measuring a binary such as pre- and post-first intercourse (Bancroft, 2000 pp. 273-8). I believe these comments missed the primary innovation of this work, which is an initial attempt to apply a mathematical model that is widely used in many other fields to an area of sex research which has not only otherwise eluded quantification, but also been stuffed into predictive, regressive statistical models which are theoretically inappropriate to the behavior, as I will discuss below.

DST, Causation, and Prediction
The structure of complex systems does not allow for basic causal theories of the behavior of that system. Because large changes may emerge from miniscule characteristics of the start-state of a system, and because interactions over time interact complexly, it is impossible to point to a single factor or even a group of factors which are necessarily causes of any given sexual characteristic or behavior. In a dynamical systems framework, sex researchers can only indicate that a group of factors interacting over time produced a particular state, and that the nature of the coupling of different parameters determines outcome. Also, as discussed in the History and Philosophy section of this paper, DST is not useful for prediction of behavior because highly complex systems are, by their very nature, non-predictive. If we take the weather as an illustrative example, we can determine within a range of time what possible conditions are likely to arise, but we cannot predict with certainty any given outcome. Because a key function of sex research is the prediction of, say, sexual risk taking or the outcome of a therapeutic intervention, we have a fundamental conflict in epistemology if these models turn out to be chaotic. However, we will not know whether or not those systems are chaotic (and thus unpredictable) unless we attempt to model them dynamically.

Conclusion
In this paper, I have attempted to examine dynamical systems theory as a potential new way of interrogating sexuality, from the genetic and hormonal level, to the psychological and cultural level. What I have not done is provided a specific agenda for sex researchers, nor have I delved in depth to mathematical methods of modeling of systems and the philosophical and practical implications of modeling not by standard statistical methods but with difference and differential equations. As a beginning doctoral student, I lack the knowledge to make any claims regarding mathematical modeling of any kind. But this is an area in great need of elaboration in the field of sex research if we are to adopt these methods appropriately. Further elaboration of types of attractor models which might best represent male and female development, sexual response, and identity, and the reciprocal influence of these on social dynamics remain unexplored.

Sexual response is a single aspect of sexuality as it exists in human organisms, and it arises from the complex interplay of chromosomes, hormones, social conditioning, and other factors. In order to understand sexual response per se, we must also understand sex and gender development and the social regulation of sexuality. DST has the potential to assist in these pursuits as well; as discussed, Fausto-Sterling (2003) has begun a research agenda to apply DST to the study of gender development in infants to one-year-olds. It may also be helpful in understanding the emergence of sexual identity: for example, researchers exploring basic hormonal differences in vitro and in infancy that seem correlated with homosexual desires or identity may be able to build a complex, dynamic model of development which illustrates how these minute chemical differences, functioning within the intrinsic dynamics of the system, may give rise to behavioral-level differences. In short, I have no doubt that the addition of a dynamical modeling of sexuality to the already vastly multidisciplinary field of sex research armamentarium will help bring cohesion and clarity to the basic contradictions and complexities in the data.

The theory is problematic in several ways, not the least of which is the unfamiliarity of the mathematical models used to represent the system quantitatively. Few sex researchers are prepared to perform and evaluate nonlinear differential equations; the profession’s emphasis on statistics has brought about a field full of professional and amateur statisticians, not connoisseurs of calculus. Beyond that, it requires minute data on the processes underlying health behavior: in order for the theory to account accurately for health behavior, it must incorporate precise data on the phenomenon it wishes to predict. In this way, dynamical systems demands a quality and quantity of research not yet available in this young field.
Yet the model offers a compellingly complete perspective on sexuality, perhaps the most thorough and comprehensive theory of human behavior. With such potential power, it is difficult to reject the model, despite the obstacles between the current state of health behavior research and the theory’s application in our work. As the field develops and we accumulate a more thorough-going picture of human behavior around health, the theory will grow increasingly explanatory, allowing us to design interventions that account not only for the variables we can measure directly, but also for the mechanisms underlying those variables.

Human behavior’s complexity challenges our best understanding. Social scientists have begun using dynamical systems to present parsimonious yet thorough explanations for emergent complexity in individual behavior and social organization. Sexual health behavior exemplifies the complexity of human behavior: with competing biological, interpersonal, social, and political agendas, the behavior we exhibit is a hybrid, a composite of all these competing factors. A dynamical systems model can potentially represent all these dimensions and the nature of their interaction.


References

Bancroft, John (Ed.). (2000). The Role of Theory in Sex Research. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.

Bancroft, J. and Janssen, E. (2000) The dual control model of male sexual response: a theoretical approach to centrally mediated erectile dysfunction. Neuroscience and Biobehavioral Review; 24, 571-579.

Bateson G. (1980). Mind and nature: A necessary unity. London: Fontana.

Derrida, J. (1981). Dissemination. Chicago: University Press.

Clark, Andy. (2001). Being There: Putting Brain, Body, and World Together Again. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Descartes, Rene. (1641/1996). Meditations on First Philosophy. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.

Doll, William. (1993). A Post-modern Perspective on Curriculum. New York City: Teachers College Press.

Eliasmith, C. (Ed.) (n.d.) Dynamical Systems Theory. Retrieved October 30, 2003 from Washington University Philosphy of Mind Dictionary website: http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~philos/MindDict/dynamicsystems.html

Fausto-Sterling, A. (2003). Thinking Systematically about the Emergence of Gender. Opening Plenary: Women’s Sexualities: Historical, Interdisciplinary, and International Perspectives Conference.

Michel Foucault. (1972).“The discourse on language.” In The Archaeology of Knowledge, New York: Pantheon Books.

Glanz, Karen, Rimer, Barbara K., and Lewis, Frances Marcus. (2002). Theory, Research, and Practice in Health Behavior and Health Education. In K. Glanz, B. Rimer, and F. Lewis (Eds.), Health Behavior and Health Education: Theory, research, and practice (pp. 22-39). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Guinti, Marco. (1995). Dynamical Models of Cognition. In R. Port and T van Gelder (Eds.), Mind as Motion (pp. 551-571). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Heidegger, Martin. (1927/1962). Being and time Translated by John Macquarrie and Edward Robinson. New York: Harper, 1962.

Lewin, Kurt. (1943/1963). Defining the “Field at a Given Time.” In Dorwin Cartwright (Ed.). Field Theory in Social Science. London: Tavistock Publication Limited.

Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20:130-141.

Nowak, Andrzej and Vallacher, Robin. (1998). Dynamical Social Psychology. New York: Guilford Press.

Puddifoot, John. (2000). Some Problems and Possibilities in the Study of Dynamical Social Processes. Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior. 30(1), 79-97.

Rodgers, Joseph Lee. (2000). Social Contagion and Adolescent Sexual Behavior: Theoretical and Policy Implications. In Bancroft J. (Ed.) The Role of Theory in Sex Research. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.

Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Rowe, David C. (1993). Social contagion and adolescent sexual behavior: A developmental EMOSA model. Psychological Review, 100(3), 479-511.

Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Buster, Maury. (1998a). Social Contagion, Adolescent Sexual Behavior, and Pregnancy: A Nonlinear Dynamic EMOSA Model. Developmental Psychology, 34(5) 1096-1113.

Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Buster, Maury. (1998b). Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Social Contagion: Reply to Stoolmiller (1998). Developmental Psychology, 34(5) 1117-1119.

Stoolmiller, Mike. (1998). Comments on `Social Contagion, Adolescent Sexual Behavior, and Pregnancy: A Nonlinear Dynamic... Developmental Psychology 34(5) 1114-16.

Thelen, Esther and Smith, Linda. (1994). A Dynamic Systems Approach to the Development of Cognition and Action. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Thelen, E., & Smith, L. B. (1997). Dynamic systems theories. In R. M. Lerner (Ed.), Handbook of child psychology: Vol. 1. Theoretical models of human development (5th ed., pp. 563- 633). New York: Wiley.

Thelen, E., Schoner, G. Scheier, C, and Smith, L. (2000). The Dynamics of Embodiment: A field theory of infant perseverative reaching. Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

Vallacher, R. and Nowak, A. (Eds.). (1994). Dynamical Systems in Social Psychology. London: Academic Press, Inc.

Volk, Tyler (2003). Retrieved November 20, 2003 from the New York University Biology Department Faculty webpage: http://www.nyu.edu/fas/dept/biology/faculty/index.html




Reference research: business research and home research and shopping research and my social page




Popular Web Directories

วันพฤหัสบดีที่ 28 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2553

research methods in physical activity


Patricia L. Sullivan, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs recently completed a study advancing a new model which predicts a nation's probability of accomplishing military objectives. Sullivan's research, reported in the June issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution and by the UGA Office of Public Affairs News Service, found that since WWII major countries, including the United States, the Soviet Union, Russia, China, Britain or France, have failed in 39% of 122 military objectives against smaller, weaker nations.

Under a grant funded by the National Science Foundation and institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation Sullivan conducted research to explain the "circumstances under which more powerful nations are likely to fail and creates a model that allows policymakers to calculate the probability of success in current and future conflicts, "according to the UGA News Service.

Factors which Sullivan found important are the objective, the nature of the target, whether or not the target cooperates with the objective, whether the target or country initiating the action has allies, whether allies will intervene on either side, and the military strength or weakness of allies.

The factor most easily defined is the objective. The objective is the reason for military intervention. Objective, in Sullivan's model, is based on a continuum from "brute force" to "coercion." According to UGA News Service, the nature of the target is defined by the type of group which composes the target: guerilla, formal nation states, or terrorists. Examining these factors allows you to draw some conclusions about the odds of winning a military conflict.

Of the factors Sullivan identified the most important as whether the objective can be reached by military strength alone, or if target cooperation is essential in the military objective.

Sullivan explains that in the 1991 Gulf War Kuwait was a cooperative target. The citizens and government of Kuwait wanted the assistance of the United States. Driving out Hussein's forces was accomplished quickly and efficiently with the compliance of the nation of Kuwait.

Iraq has proven to be a different war story. Iraq did not invite the United States to enter their country. Although the United States entered on the stated premise of humanitarianism and a quest to end Hussein's reign of terror, that doesn't mean the U.S. was invited, and it doesn't mean the target is cooperative. The United States' objective to free the people of Iraq from the iron rule of Saddam Hussein and his Republican Guard was based on the plausible assumption that no human being wants to live in a state of suffering, euthanasia, and general brutality from a dictator. The United States government presumed the people of Iraq preferred freedom and democracy to the dictatorial, totalitarian government under which they lived. However, as a nation, Iraq has not proven cooperative to that objective.

Sectarian violence has kept the United States from meeting their military objective. Rather than welcoming international assistance in building a free nation, divided allegiances in the country have prolonged the military action. Many Muslim extremists view the United States as the face of the enemy, literally and spiritually. They continue to fight hard against governmental and social changes.

The lack of cooperation in Iraq is a huge indicator, according to Sullivan's model of the future of the war. It illuminates the need for target cooperation in military objectives. It does not, however, satisfy the question as to whether the probability of victory affirms or denies the call for military force to implement changes in the interest of humanitarianism.

Military force and humanitarianism, philosophically, should be mutually exclusive terms. However, often, in the face of brutality and oppression force is necessary to break the bonds of oppression. This creates a paradox which the United States government and citizens continue to grapple. It is, however, the same paradox that prompted the Declaration of Independence and the American Revolutionary War.

Sullivan reported to the UGA news service, "We can try to use brute force to kill insurgents and terrorists, but what we really need is for the population to be supportive of the government and to stop supporting the insurgents. Otherwise, every time we kill an insurgent or a terrorist, they're going to be replaced by others."

Once Sullivan developed her model, she tested it and found that her paradigm was accurate in 80% of the conflicts she examined, according to the UGA news service. Her model was used to examine the current war between the U.S. and its allies, and Iraq. Extrapolating an end to the war in Iraq based on Sullivan's model, theUGA news service estimates that there is a 26% chance of victory, in a war that could endure approximately ten years. Sullivan points out that factions, insurgents, and covert allies, such as Iran and Syria, seriously undermine the U.S. objective in Iraq.

Sullivan's conclusions regarding the war with Iraq were reported by the UGA news service as follows:

"No one could have predicted exactly what would happen after we overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein," Sullivan said. "But what my model could say was that if the population was not supportive of whatever new regime we put in power and the American strategic objective shifted from regime removal to maintaining the authority of a new government, the likelihood of a successful outcome would drop from almost 70 percent to just under 26 percent."

Sullivan's research and reporting prove timely as the fierce debate over whether to pull our troops out of Iraq rages in the United States. According to Sullivan, the chances for the successful establishment of a new government in a free and independent Iraq are slim, without the cooperation of the Iraqis and surrounding nations. The research, however, does nothing to discourage those who believe in the fight in the name of higher moral law and justice.

Sullivan's paradigm is helpful, but must be weighed against the one's acceptance of age old adage, "It's not whether you win or lose, but how (or why) you play the game." One factor that Sullivan's research did not address includes an equation which may never be quantified: How much is one life worth in the pursuit of freedom and justice for all?

Sources:

Fahmy, Sam. "UGA study finds that weaker nations prevail in 39 percent of military conflicts, UGA Office of Public Affairs News Service, June 11, 2007.

http://www.uga.edu/news/artman/publish/070611_Sullivan.shtml

http://www.uga.edu/intl/sullivan.htm

http://jcr.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/51/3/496





Reference research: beauty research and health research and shopping research and recent update




Social Bookmark Art